On the other hand, many local businesses had invested heavily in what they had hoped to be a great week for sales.Restaurants, in particular, had scheduled larger than usual orders. Hotels that had virtually closed down scrambled to find new temporary staff. It's suspected - but not confirmed - that a lot of speculators also have dozens to hundreds of hotel reservations they thought they could easily resell at a profit.
One's personal politics can also play a part in whether or not this looks like a victory or a defeat. For those who support Trump and the Republican party, it's got to be at least a little frustrating to watch these plans evaporate. Those who favor a Democratic victory in November are probably glad that the GOP won't have this platform.
With that out of the way, let's check the roundup:
Winners
- The city - While it doesn't look good that we were one of the only cities who agreed to take on such a dangerous and controversial convention, we will at least be spared the embarrassment of actually having to go through with it. People in other states and cities will be a little bit more aware of the local resistance to the event, and we won't be subject to hours of coverage in the national media. Between the lack of hotels and amenities downtown, the general economic slowdown caused by the pandemic, and the partisan nature of the event, it was likely to generate a lot of negative publicity that can now be avoided.
- Jacksonville residents - The news is also a big win for Jacksonville residents who were worried about public health and safety. There won't be thousands of people visiting from out of town that week, and we won't be encouraging an escalation to the protests. We've seen just a little bit of chaos from Jacksonville's largest wave of protests in recent history, but for the most part they've been peaceful and orderly. Trump's controversial visit could have been fuel to light a much larger fire, and the proposal to limit protests to a small fenced section of downtown away from the event was already enraging local activists. Again, all of that will now be avoided.
- Taxpayers - Yes, the Mayor promised that this would be a huge economic benefit for the city of Jacksonville, but at this point it's pretty clear that his numbers and estimates weren't really based on anything. He was the guy who thought this was a good idea, after all. The reality is that the Charlotte committee wasn't releasing any funds to Jacksonville. There would also be significant costs for police overtime budgets and other security costs. There was always a good chance that this event was going to be a massive waste of money, and the taxpayers would've ultimately been on the hook for that.
Losers
- Donald Trump - President Trump really wanted his big event. He wanted the roar of the crowd and he didn't want it interrupted with things like social distancing and masks. He wanted a place where he could play out his fantasy of being a popular president in a strong and healthy America, but reality caught up with him quicker than the plan could be enacted. The greatest irony here is that if Trump had taken the virus seriously back in February or March, he probably could have that fantasy match the reality.
- Mayor Curry - Out of the local political class, Mayor Lenny Curry seems to have invested the most heavily in the RNC. He promised big economic dividends and a national spotlight, but he got ridicule instead. With the clock running out on his final term, he's likely to be remembered for the things he destroyed (the RNC, the Landing, Metro Park, etc...) and his possibly criminal attempt to sell off JEA. Any hope of a positive legacy or future political career is probably about zero right now, although there may be a part time gig on Fox News available.
- Businesses who bet on the GOP - Leadership matters, and Jacksonville businesses who were following the lead of the GOP are likely to see their bets come up short. It's terrible that so many local businesses have been impacted by the pandemic and resulting recession, but this convention debacle just doubled down on a losing hand. Local Republicans might need some time to rebuild trust and leadership within the local business community.
The easy way out
The other irony here is that the losers might have lost twice as bad if the convention hadn't been canceled. Trump was likely to be greeted by a sparse crowd, and in the aftermath he'd be blamed for any increased transmission or Covid or any attendees who were later found to be infected. Curry would also shoulder additional blame if attendance and economic impact failed to meet expectations. Businesses that were already burned by inflated sales estimates might be hit twice as hard without the opportunity to cancel orders and reschedule shifts in advance.
When all is said and done, it's likely that this particular issue won't even last too long in the minds of voters and the local public. The economic losses might be pretty long term, or even permanent, for those businesses and individual speculators who bet big, but most people will probably go on with their lives without too much lingering thought to the convention that could have been.
For the losers in this deal, that's probably mostly good news because they already had big problems before this convention was added to them. Trump's facing historic unpopularity and polls suggesting Biden could get a landslide victory. Curry is facing multiple investigations in to his role in the attempted JEA sale, and local businesses are already reeling from the effects of the pandemic.
Now they can get back to their regularly scheduled crises!
